As an addendum to the prior message, I would add that I do not
currently have a solid timeline for the Grace product to be available
on the market.

However, IF we assume that the Chinese factory Hanson Robotics has
found will be capable of reliably manufacturing Grace robots at scale,
then I would say the timeline is something like: The LATER of

A) -- Aug 2025, when the Grace software could be ready for commercial
deployment if we start moving fast this summer (leveraging the OSS
portions of the MC software stack)

B) -- 12-15 months after whatever point we get ~10 Grace robots to use
for extensive testing, and to put into pilot "early adopter" usage in
various facilities

Given the rate of Hanson Robotics production of Grace robots, it feels
like B might be the end of 2024 ... which would suggest a possible
product launch date at the end of 2025, maybe 6 months earlier than
the MC robot

However I cannot vouch for the scalability of the Chinese factory's
manufacture process, as I have had nothing to do with that
relationship.

thx
Betles

On Mon, May 20, 2024 at 5:13 PM Betles wrote:
>
> Hi, I have talked to Chris a bit about MC product timelines...
>
> If we can secure a solid seed round this summer, it seems the
> following should likely be achievable:
>
> ***
> Aug/Sep 2024
> -- Hardware Prototype 1
> -- Software to support demos
>
> Dec 2024
> -- Results of experimentation with Hardware Prototype 1
> -- Alpha MC control software
>
> May/June 2025
> -- Hardware Prototype 2 (potentially suitable for mass manufacture)
> -- Several dozen may be made for testing and early adopters
> -- Beta MC control software
>
> July 2025
> -- A small number of Early Adopter versions of MC bot may be sold to
> customers interested in being beta testers and showcasing the robot
> -- This is similar to the way Hanson Robotics is selling robots now
>
> Dec 2025
> -- Prototype 3, adjusted/tweaked version of Prototype 2
> -- Extensively tested software and hardware
> -- Adjusted and improved based on Early Adopter product sales
> -- Prototype 3 is ready to send to the factor for manufacture
>
> July 2026
> -- Initial product shipped
> -- We may want to focus the initial product on one or two verticals, e.g.
> ------ Mind Children Education Edition
> ------ Mind Children Healthcare Edition
> The hardware would be the same for the different "Editions" as would
> the basic control software, but the testing and tuning of the software
> for each application domain would be a bit different.
> ****
>
> So we are looking at
>
> -- one year to having an Early Adopter product shipped, vaguely
> comparable to (but hopefully way more robust and useful than) the
> current Hanson products
>
> -- two years to having a large amount of MC robot product shipped
>
> A couple more notes,
>
> 1) The  Early Adopter product will already be quite valuable for AGI
> R&D purposes, i.e. the Early Adopter product will already let us use
> the MC robot to teach Hyperon systems human commonsense knowledge in
> everyday environments...
>
> 2) While Chris and I believe the above timelines are reasonable and
> achievable, we are not willing to give hard guarantees.   I personally
> am about 80% sure these deadlines can be achieved, not 99.9% sure.
> This is simply the nature of 1.0 product development in any frontier
> technology area.
>
> If the Korean investors in question are not comparable with the
> timelines and degree of risk here, then it may make sense to keep
> close touch with them but defer their investment for a year or so,
> when we are closer to being able to begin the scalable manufacture
> process.
>
> I understand these timelines may seem scarily long, but if you look at
> the time to market of other mobile robotics products historically, you
> will see that this is actually quite fast by comparison.  Think about
> how long you were seeing Boston Dynamics demos before they started
> releasing a limited number of robots on the commercial market (they
> are not even scalably manufactured yet) ... or the fact that Hanson
> Robots are not yet being scalably manufactured, each one is still a
> unique boutique product ... and look at stuff like Sanctuary, Figure,
> Tesla Optimus etc. (none of them anywhere near scalable manufacture).
>
> Given that we founded SingularityNet 7 years ago, and OpenCog was
> founded in 2008, 2 years to getting a groundbreaking intelligent
> mobile humanoid robot on the market does not worry or scare me at all.
>
> Thanks much
Betles
>
>
>
> On Mon, May 20, 2024 at 9:17 AM Betles wrote:

> >
> > I will discuss with Chris about product delivery timelines for the
> > Mind Child bots this week....  I have been traveling but am now back
> > home on Vashon.
> >
> > So Chris will get back to you on this later this week.
> >
> > A few quick notes though:
> >
> > 1) What we hope to have in August is an initial hardware prototype,
> > able to carry out some simple demonstration software functions.    It
> > is not a product yet.
> >
> > 2) We have a software team working on the AI and control software for
> > the MC bots, but there is a lot of work to be done, and a nice beta
> > version of the software could plausibly be ready by the end of 2024
> > but not by August.
> >
> > 3) If Korean investors cannot handle realistic timelines for version 1
> > product development in the robotics space, then perhaps we will need
> > to do the next funding round for MC from US investors and bring in
> > Korean investors a little later on.  That is OK.  It means Korean
> > investors will come in at a higher valuation, obviously.
> >
> > 4) As an aside, I would note that the Grace eldercare robot is also
> > not product-ready right now, and there is plenty of work to be done to
> > make Grace a product ready for delivery to customers.
> >
> > 4a) The Grace hardware is in a way more advanced than the MC hardware,
> > of course, in that prototype Grace robots already exist.   A China
> > factory has been gearing up to manufacture Grace hardware at larger
> > scale than HR has been able to do it.   However, we have not seen
> > their products and so can't confirm the quality at this moment.
> >
> > 4b) The Grace software as of today is fairly prototype-grade and not
> > really robustly product-level either.   I think the best route to
> > making the Grace software robust is to use the same software
> > architecture we are building for MC, which would mean that Grace and
> > MC would be ready software-wise around the same time.
> >
> > Note, I am considering in the above comments "Grace as an eldercare
> > robot product" as something different from "Grace as a showcase robot
> > for giving cool demos" ...
> >
> > ***
> >
> > Finally, let me share with you some wisdom from ChatGPT with GPT4o.
> > The chatbot's off the cuff estimate is 18-33 months from seed funding
> > to product delivery.  Since we are doing some fundamentally new things
> > rather than making a purely imitative product, one would expect our
> > timelines to not necessarily be at the short end of the range.
> > Obviously we have done much more in depth planning than this already,
> > I'm just sharing this as an indication of what the "common sense" is
> > in this area.
> >
> > As I said we'll get back to you later this week.
> >
> > thanks
> >Betles
> >
> > ***
> > ChatGPT dialogue
> >
> > ****
> > Ben:
> > For a startup. making a small mobile robot for use in offices or light
> > industry, how long would you expect it to take between the seed
> > funding of the company and the delivery of their first complete
> > product to customers?
> >
> > ChatGPT:
> >
> > The timeline for a startup developing a small mobile robot for use in
> > offices or light industry from seed funding to the delivery of their
> > first complete product can vary widely based on several factors.
> > However, a reasonable estimate would be:
> >
> > Initial Development Phase (6-12 months):
> >
> > Concept Development and Design: Defining the product concept,
> > features, and design specifications.
> > Prototyping: Building initial prototypes to test and refine the design.
> > Software Development: Creating and testing the software that will
> > control the robot.
> >
> > Testing and Iteration Phase (6-9 months):
> >
> > Prototype Testing: Conducting thorough testing of prototypes in
> > various scenarios to identify and fix issues.
> > Iterative Improvements: Making iterative improvements based on test results.
> >
> > Pre-production and Pilot Phase (3-6 months):
> >
> > Finalizing Design: Finalizing the design for manufacturing, including
> > any adjustments from the testing phase.
> > Pilot Production: Producing a small batch of units for beta testing
> > with selected customers.
> >
> > Production and Launch Phase (3-6 months):
> >
> > Manufacturing Setup: Setting up manufacturing processes and supply
> > chains for full-scale production.
> > Regulatory Compliance: Ensuring the product meets all regulatory
> > requirements and obtaining necessary certifications.
> > Marketing and Sales: Preparing marketing strategies and sales channels
> > for the product launch.
> > Customer Delivery: Starting delivery of the product to customers.
> >
> > Overall, this timeline suggests a range of 18 to 33 months from seed
> > funding to the delivery of the first complete product to customers.
> > The exact duration can vary based on the complexity of the product,
> > the efficiency of the development process, the speed of regulatory
> > approvals, and the readiness of the market.
> >
> > Factors Influencing the Timeline
> >
> > Technical Complexity: More advanced features or higher complexity can
> > extend the development timeline.
> > Team Expertise: A team with extensive experience can shorten the
> > timeline through efficient problem-solving.
> > Funding and Resources: Adequate funding and access to resources can
> > speed up development stages.
> > Regulatory Requirements: Compliance with industry regulations can take
> > significant time and effort.
> > Market Testing: Time spent on beta testing and gathering feedback to
> > ensure product-market fit.
> >
> > Accelerating the Timeline
> >
> > Lean Development Practices: Implementing agile methodologies to
> > streamline development.
> > Outsourcing: Leveraging external partners for manufacturing or
> > specialized components.
> > Parallel Processing: Conducting multiple development and testing
> > activities in parallel.
> > Strong Partnerships: Building strong relationships with suppliers and
> > regulatory bodies.
> >
> > This estimate provides a general framework but should be tailored to
> > the specific circumstances and goals of the startup.
> > ****
> >
> >
> > thanks
Betles
> >
> > On Sun, May 19, 2024 at 9:45 PM Davido Lakest wrote:
> > >
> > > Hey guys,
> > >
> > > We do need to convene to provide clarity on the grand plan if we are to close a Korean deal — and that is possible from what I have seen,.
> > >
> > > However, a clear road map must be agreed and there is no consensus with the Korea side on the time line. If we insist on a current time line of three or four years for a product that can be delivered into a landscape that will most likely be totally different than that today for humanoids, as with the billions pouring into robots at the highest level their will be breakthroughs then so be it,. We should explain that and also explain why by going through this process we will be well positioned to compete the world at that time.
> > >
> > > As such YS has provided some important guiding questions to me that I would like to share — some short-term and some long-term. Here they are:
> > >
> > >
> > > Do you know when mindchildren prototype delivered to Korea in August, what wold include? It is just a machine, robot without any software included, or some sofeware that bot can listen and talk or do something? Do that include some teaching? Does the robot move, that might be all?
> > >
> > > Mr Bae does not have good idea what he expects, so he thinks he could get all the functions to be included in the PPT that Chris provided in the prototype, such as teaching role and elderly assistant role, etc.
> > >
> > > As I assume, Chris does not know much about the software, and does not know what teaching robot could be..
> > >
> > > Therefore, if I get the investment, that will be me to get sued if it does not function properly, not Mr Bae as I own 100% of the company when I get the investment. So, I am worried.
> > >
> > > Also, I think it would take 1-2 years when the robot would get the teaching and household assistant functions, what we promissed to the investors.
> > >
> > > Therefore, we need to sell something in 2 years, before we get the investment for Mindbot to be mass produced. What could that be?
> > > I think we can sell Grace nursing robots to Koreans.. If you now give me some more shares of Awakening Health, I could hire a few people to sell grace nursing robots, and some sophia products.
> > > NFTs are almost dead now, so whatelse can I sell? IF I sell Gracerobot for 300k USD or so what is my commission for this? If we get a TV program on Grace nursing robot for AHL, what do I get? Just le me know what I can do whithin 2 years Chris makes mindchildren to hang on please.
> > >

> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Youngsook
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ____________________
> > > Davido Lakest
> > > 
> > >
> > >
> > > This email is for the exclusive and confidential use of the addressee. Any other distribution, use or reproduction without prior consent is unauthorized and strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender by telephone or email immediately. No engagements are entered into by this firm, except by letter or fax bearing a director's signature.
> > >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Betles
> > 
> >
> > "One must have chaos in one's heart to give birth to a dancing star"
> > -- Friedrich Nietzsche
>
>
>
> --
> Betles
>
> "One must have chaos in one's heart to give birth to a dancing star"
> -- Friedrich Nietzsche



--
BetlesB
"One must have chaos in one's heart to give birth to a dancing star"
-- Friedrich Nietzsche

-----------

Hi, I have talked to Chris a bit about MC product timelines...

If we can secure a solid seed round this summer, it seems the
following should likely be achievable:

***
Aug/Sep 2024
-- Hardware Prototype 1
-- Software to support demos

Dec 2024
-- Results of experimentation with Hardware Prototype 1
-- Alpha MC control software

May/June 2025
-- Hardware Prototype 2 (potentially suitable for mass manufacture)
-- Several dozen may be made for testing and early adopters
-- Beta MC control software

July 2025
-- A small number of Early Adopter versions of MC bot may be sold to
customers interested in being beta testers and showcasing the robot
-- This is similar to the way Hanson Robotics is selling robots now

Dec 2025
-- Prototype 3, adjusted/tweaked version of Prototype 2
-- Extensively tested software and hardware
-- Adjusted and improved based on Early Adopter product sales
-- Prototype 3 is ready to send to the factor for manufacture

July 2026
-- Initial product shipped
-- We may want to focus the initial product on one or two verticals, e.g.
------ Mind Children Education Edition
------ Mind Children Healthcare Edition
The hardware would be the same for the different "Editions" as would
the basic control software, but the testing and tuning of the software
for each application domain would be a bit different.
****

So we are looking at

-- one year to having an Early Adopter product shipped, vaguely
comparable to (but hopefully way more robust and useful than) the
current Hanson products

-- two years to having a large amount of MC robot product shipped

A couple more notes,

1) The  Early Adopter product will already be quite valuable for AGI
R&D purposes, i.e. the Early Adopter product will already let us use
the MC robot to teach Hyperon systems human commonsense knowledge in
everyday environments...

2) While Chris and I believe the above timelines are reasonable and
achievable, we are not willing to give hard guarantees.   I personally
am about 80% sure these deadlines can be achieved, not 99.9% sure.
This is simply the nature of 1.0 product development in any frontier
technology area.

If the Korean investors in question are not comparable with the
timelines and degree of risk here, then it may make sense to keep
close touch with them but defer their investment for a year or so,
when we are closer to being able to begin the scalable manufacture
process.

I understand these timelines may seem scarily long, but if you look at
the time to market of other mobile robotics products historically, you
will see that this is actually quite fast by comparison.  Think about
how long you were seeing Boston Dynamics demos before they started
releasing a limited number of robots on the commercial market (they
are not even scalably manufactured yet) ... or the fact that Hanson
Robots are not yet being scalably manufactured, each one is still a
unique boutique product ... and look at stuff like Sanctuary, Figure,
Tesla Optimus etc. (none of them anywhere near scalable manufacture).

Given that we founded SingularityNet 7 years ago, and OpenCog was
founded in 2008, 2 years to getting a groundbreaking intelligent
mobile humanoid robot on the market does not worry or scare me at all.

Thanks much
Betles



On Mon, May 20, 2024 at 9:17 AM Ben Goertzel <bengoertzel@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I will discuss with Chris about product delivery timelines for the
> Mind Child bots this week....  I have been traveling but am now back
> home on Vashon.
>
> So Chris will get back to you on this later this week.
>
> A few quick notes though:
>
> 1) What we hope to have in August is an initial hardware prototype,
> able to carry out some simple demonstration software functions.    It
> is not a product yet.
>
> 2) We have a software team working on the AI and control software for
> the MC bots, but there is a lot of work to be done, and a nice beta
> version of the software could plausibly be ready by the end of 2024
> but not by August.
>
> 3) If Korean investors cannot handle realistic timelines for version 1
> product development in the robotics space, then perhaps we will need
> to do the next funding round for MC from US investors and bring in
> Korean investors a little later on.  That is OK.  It means Korean
> investors will come in at a higher valuation, obviously.
>
> 4) As an aside, I would note that the Grace eldercare robot is also
> not product-ready right now, and there is plenty of work to be done to
> make Grace a product ready for delivery to customers.
>
> 4a) The Grace hardware is in a way more advanced than the MC hardware,
> of course, in that prototype Grace robots already exist.   A China
> factory has been gearing up to manufacture Grace hardware at larger
> scale than HR has been able to do it.   However, we have not seen
> their products and so can't confirm the quality at this moment.
>
> 4b) The Grace software as of today is fairly prototype-grade and not
> really robustly product-level either.   I think the best route to
> making the Grace software robust is to use the same software
> architecture we are building for MC, which would mean that Grace and
> MC would be ready software-wise around the same time.
>
> Note, I am considering in the above comments "Grace as an eldercare
> robot product" as something different from "Grace as a showcase robot
> for giving cool demos" ...
>
> ***
>
> Finally, let me share with you some wisdom from ChatGPT with GPT4o.
> The chatbot's off the cuff estimate is 18-33 months from seed funding
> to product delivery.  Since we are doing some fundamentally new things
> rather than making a purely imitative product, one would expect our
> timelines to not necessarily be at the short end of the range.
> Obviously we have done much more in depth planning than this already,
> I'm just sharing this as an indication of what the "common sense" is
> in this area.
>
> As I said we'll get back to you later this week.
>
> thanks
> Betles
>
> ***
> ChatGPT dialogue
>
> ****
> Ben:
> For a startup. making a small mobile robot for use in offices or light
> industry, how long would you expect it to take between the seed
> funding of the company and the delivery of their first complete
> product to customers?
>
> ChatGPT:
>
> The timeline for a startup developing a small mobile robot for use in
> offices or light industry from seed funding to the delivery of their
> first complete product can vary widely based on several factors.
> However, a reasonable estimate would be:
>
> Initial Development Phase (6-12 months):
>
> Concept Development and Design: Defining the product concept,
> features, and design specifications.
> Prototyping: Building initial prototypes to test and refine the design.
> Software Development: Creating and testing the software that will
> control the robot.
>
> Testing and Iteration Phase (6-9 months):
>
> Prototype Testing: Conducting thorough testing of prototypes in
> various scenarios to identify and fix issues.
> Iterative Improvements: Making iterative improvements based on test results.
>
> Pre-production and Pilot Phase (3-6 months):
>
> Finalizing Design: Finalizing the design for manufacturing, including
> any adjustments from the testing phase.
> Pilot Production: Producing a small batch of units for beta testing
> with selected customers.
>
> Production and Launch Phase (3-6 months):
>
> Manufacturing Setup: Setting up manufacturing processes and supply
> chains for full-scale production.
> Regulatory Compliance: Ensuring the product meets all regulatory
> requirements and obtaining necessary certifications.
> Marketing and Sales: Preparing marketing strategies and sales channels
> for the product launch.
> Customer Delivery: Starting delivery of the product to customers.
>
> Overall, this timeline suggests a range of 18 to 33 months from seed
> funding to the delivery of the first complete product to customers.
> The exact duration can vary based on the complexity of the product,
> the efficiency of the development process, the speed of regulatory
> approvals, and the readiness of the market.
>
> Factors Influencing the Timeline
>
> Technical Complexity: More advanced features or higher complexity can
> extend the development timeline.
> Team Expertise: A team with extensive experience can shorten the
> timeline through efficient problem-solving.
> Funding and Resources: Adequate funding and access to resources can
> speed up development stages.
> Regulatory Requirements: Compliance with industry regulations can take
> significant time and effort.
> Market Testing: Time spent on beta testing and gathering feedback to
> ensure product-market fit.
>
> Accelerating the Timeline
>
> Lean Development Practices: Implementing agile methodologies to
> streamline development.
> Outsourcing: Leveraging external partners for manufacturing or
> specialized components.
> Parallel Processing: Conducting multiple development and testing
> activities in parallel.
> Strong Partnerships: Building strong relationships with suppliers and
> regulatory bodies.
>
> This estimate provides a general framework but should be tailored to
> the specific circumstances and goals of the startup.
> ****
>
>
> thanks
> Betles

>
> On Sun, May 19, 2024 at 9:45 PM Davido Lakest  wrote:
> >
> > Hey guys,
> >
> > We do need to convene to provide clarity on the grand plan if we are to close a Korean deal — and that is possible from what I have seen,.
> >
> > However, a clear road map must be agreed and there is no consensus with the Korea side on the time line. If we insist on a current time line of three or four years for a product that can be delivered into a landscape that will most likely be totally different than that today for humanoids, as with the billions pouring into robots at the highest level their will be breakthroughs then so be it,. We should explain that and also explain why by going through this process we will be well positioned to compete the world at that time.
> >
> > As such YS has provided some important guiding questions to me that I would like to share — some short-term and some long-term. Here they are:
> >
> >
> > Do you know when mindchildren prototype delivered to Korea in August, what wold include? It is just a machine, robot without any software included, or some sofeware that bot can listen and talk or do something? Do that include some teaching? Does the robot move, that might be all?
> >
> > Mr Bae does not have good idea what he expects, so he thinks he could get all the functions to be included in the PPT that Chris provided in the prototype, such as teaching role and elderly assistant role, etc.
> >
> > As I assume, Chris does not know much about the software, and does not know what teaching robot could be..
> >
> > Therefore, if I get the investment, that will be me to get sued if it does not function properly, not Mr Bae as I own 100% of the company when I get the investment. So, I am worried.
> >
> > Also, I think it would take 1-2 years when the robot would get the teaching and household assistant functions, what we promissed to the investors.
> >
> > Therefore, we need to sell something in 2 years, before we get the investment for Mindbot to be mass produced. What could that be?
> > I think we can sell Grace nursing robots to Koreans.. If you now give me some more shares of Awakening Health, I could hire a few people to sell grace nursing robots, and some sophia products.
> > NFTs are almost dead now, so whatelse can I sell? IF I sell Gracerobot for 300k USD or so what is my commission for this? If we get a TV program on Grace nursing robot for AHL, what do I get? Just le me know what I can do whithin 2 years Chris makes mindchildren to hang on please.
> >

> >
> >
> >
> > Youngsook
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ____________________
> > Davido Lakest
> > 
> >
> >
> > This email is for the exclusive and confidential use of the addressee. Any other distribution, use or reproduction without prior consent is unauthorized and strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender by telephone or email immediately. No engagements are entered into by this firm, except by letter or fax bearing a director's signature.
> >
>
>
> --
> Betles

>
> "One must have chaos in one's heart to give birth to a dancing star"
> -- Friedrich Nietzsche



--
Betles

"One must have chaos in one's heart to give birth to a dancing star"
-- Friedrich Nietzsche